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Arvand Khorramshahr FC vs Shahrdari Mahshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
FT
0 – 0
Shahrdari Mahshahr
Shahrdari Mahshahr
10/11/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 7Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC41%
×Draw35%
Shahrdari Mahshahr24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.95
Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.65

Arvand Khorramshahr FC creates 46% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

creates per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.56
Shahrdari Mahshahr
0.60

allows per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.69
Shahrdari Mahshahr
1.33

finishing

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par
Shahrdari Mahshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arvand Khorramshahr FC ↓

Shahrdari Mahshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or draw
76%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC or Shahrdari Mahshahr
65%
Draw or Shahrdari Mahshahr
59%

Winning margin

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
15%
Shahrdari Mahshahr wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
61%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
25%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
7%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 1+ goals
48%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 2+ goals
14%
Shahrdari Mahshahr 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
63%
Shahrdari Mahshahr (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Shahrdari Mahshahr away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.56 + Shahrdari Mahshahr defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.95

Shahrdari Mahshahr attack 0.60 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
41%
level
35%
Shahrdari Mahshahr scores more
24%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Arvand Khorramshahr FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arvand Khorramshahr FC vs Shahrdari Mahshahr

Arvand Khorramshahr FC and Shahrdari Mahshahr drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on October 11, 2018.

The match was played at Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr).