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Arvand Khorramshahr FC vs Shahin Bushehr — Azadegan League 2018

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
FT
0 – 3
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
11/4/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC33%
×Draw37%
Shahin Bushehr29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.76
Shahin Bushehr
0.69

Arvand Khorramshahr FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 48 away

creates per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.56
Shahin Bushehr
0.69

allows per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.69
Shahin Bushehr
0.96

finishing

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Under
  • Under82
  • Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arvand Khorramshahr FC ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–116%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
43%57%2.5
18%82%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or draw
71%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC or Shahin Bushehr
63%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
67%

Winning margin

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
10%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
53%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
18%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
4%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
50%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
15%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
53%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.56 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.76

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 33%?"

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
33%
level
37%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
29%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at 33% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 33% does not mean "Arvand Khorramshahr FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arvand Khorramshahr FC vs Shahin Bushehr

Shahin Bushehr beat Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3-0 in Azadegan League on November 4, 2018.

The match was played at Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr).