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Arvand Khorramshahr FC vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
FT
0 – 2
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
4/10/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC43%
×Draw32%
Oxin Alborz24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
1.06
Oxin Alborz
0.71

Arvand Khorramshahr FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 49 away

creates per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.56
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.69
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arvand Khorramshahr FC ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or draw
76%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC or Oxin Alborz
68%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
57%

Winning margin

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
18%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
65%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
29%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
9%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
51%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
16%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
64%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.56 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.06

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
43%
level
32%
Oxin Alborz scores more
24%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arvand Khorramshahr FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arvand Khorramshahr FC vs Oxin Alborz

Oxin Alborz beat Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2-0 in Azadegan League on April 10, 2019.

The match was played at Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr).