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Arvand Khorramshahr FC vs Malavan — Azadegan League 2018

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
FT
0 – 0
Malavan
Malavan
1/31/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 21Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC35%
×Draw36%
Malavan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.83
Malavan
0.72

Arvand Khorramshahr FC creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

creates per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.56
Malavan
0.76

allows per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.69
Malavan
1.09

finishing

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arvand Khorramshahr FC ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or draw
71%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC or Malavan
64%
Draw or Malavan
65%

Winning margin

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
12%
Malavan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
56%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
20%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
5%
Malavan 1+ goals
51%
Malavan 2+ goals
16%
Malavan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
55%
Malavan (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.09 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.56 + Malavan defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.83

Malavan attack 0.76 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
35%
level
36%
Malavan scores more
29%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Arvand Khorramshahr FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Arvand Khorramshahr FC 0–0 Malavan

Arvand Khorramshahr FC and Malavan drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on January 31, 2019.

The match was played at Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr).