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Arvand Khorramshahr FC vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
FT
0 – 0
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
3/29/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC30%
×Draw39%
Aluminium Arak30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.67
Aluminium Arak
0.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 31 away

creates per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.56
Aluminium Arak
0.65

allows per match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.69
Aluminium Arak
0.77

finishing

Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Under
  • Under85
  • Over15

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

76%No
  • No76
  • Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arvand Khorramshahr FC ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–026%
0–118%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (26%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
74%26%1.5
39%61%2.5
15%85%3.5
5%95%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Arvand Khorramshahr FC or draw
70%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC or Aluminium Arak
61%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
70%

Winning margin

Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
9%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
49%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
15%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
3%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
49%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
15%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
50%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at home — creates 0.56, concedes 0.69 · 16 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.65, concedes 0.77 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.56 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.67

Aluminium Arak attack 0.65 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 30%?"

Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
30%
level
39%
Aluminium Arak scores more
30%

Arvand Khorramshahr FC at 30% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 30% does not mean "Arvand Khorramshahr FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Arvand Khorramshahr FC 0–0 Aluminium Arak

Arvand Khorramshahr FC and Aluminium Arak drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on March 29, 2019.

The match was played at Khorramshahr Stadium (Khorramshahr).