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Arundel vs Epsom & Ewell FC — League #45 2026

Arundel
Arundel
FT
1 – 2
Epsom & Ewell FC
Epsom & Ewell FC
8/11/2012League #45League #45 · Extra Preliminary RoundMill Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Arundel29%
×Draw24%
Epsom & Ewell FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arundel
1.25
Epsom & Ewell FC
1.63

Epsom & Ewell FC creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Arundel
1.00
Epsom & Ewell FC
1.75

allows per match

Arundel
1.50
Epsom & Ewell FC
1.50

finishing

Arundel+0.00on par
Epsom & Ewell FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arundel ↓

Epsom & Ewell FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Arundel or draw
54%
Arundel or Epsom & Ewell FC
76%
Draw or Epsom & Ewell FC
71%

Winning margin

Arundel wins by 2+
12%
Epsom & Ewell FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Arundel 1+ goals
71%
Arundel 2+ goals
36%
Arundel 3+ goals
13%
Epsom & Ewell FC 1+ goals
80%
Epsom & Ewell FC 2+ goals
48%
Epsom & Ewell FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Arundel (draw refunded)
39%
Epsom & Ewell FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arundel at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Epsom & Ewell FC away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arundel attack 1.00 + Epsom & Ewell FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Epsom & Ewell FC attack 1.75 + Arundel defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Arundel scores more
29%
level
24%
Epsom & Ewell FC scores more
46%

Epsom & Ewell FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Epsom & Ewell FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arundel vs Epsom & Ewell FC

Epsom & Ewell FC beat Arundel 2-1 in League #45 on August 11, 2012.

The match was played at Mill Road.