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Aruko Sports vs Toledo — Paranaense - 2 2025

Aruko Sports
Aruko Sportsadvanced
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Toledo
Toledo
Junior Prego 86'
Batata 84', 69'
Adiel 52', 33'
Iruan 50'
Leandro Cordova 3'
6/22/2025Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Regional Willie Davids

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Aruko Sports83%
×Draw12%
Toledo5%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aruko Sports
2.77
Toledo
0.56

Aruko Sports creates 395% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

Aruko Sports
3.11
Toledo
0.57

allows per match

Aruko Sports
0.56
Toledo
2.43

finishing

Aruko Sports+0.00on par
Toledo+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aruko Sports ↓

Toledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Aruko Sports or draw
95%
Aruko Sports or Toledo
88%
Draw or Toledo
17%

Winning margin

Aruko Sports wins by 2+
62%
Toledo wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Aruko Sports 1+ goals
94%
Aruko Sports 2+ goals
76%
Aruko Sports 3+ goals
51%
Toledo 1+ goals
43%
Toledo 2+ goals
11%
Toledo 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Aruko Sports (draw refunded)
94%
Toledo (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aruko Sports at home — creates 3.11, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Toledo away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aruko Sports attack 3.11 + Toledo defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.77

Toledo attack 0.57 + Aruko Sports defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Aruko Sports scores more
83%
level
12%
Toledo scores more
5%

Aruko Sports at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Aruko Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
Leandro Cordova
33'
Adiel
50'
Iruan
52'
Adiel
69'
Batata
84'
Batata
86'
Junior Prego

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Aruko Sports 7–0 Toledo

Aruko Sports beat Toledo 7-0 in Paranaense - 2 on June 22, 2025.

Goals: Leandro Cordova (3'), Adiel (33', 52'), Iruan (50'), Batata (69', 84'), Junior Prego (86').

The match was played at Estádio Regional Willie Davids in Maringá, Paraná.