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Aruko Sports vs Foz Do Iguacu — Paranaense - 2 2025

Aruko Sports
Aruko Sportsadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Foz Do Iguacu
Foz Do Iguacu
Iruan 90+7'
Junior Prego 41'
Adiel 21'
Giovane 62'
7/19/2025Paranaense - 2Paranaense - 2 · Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Aruko Sports67%
×Draw20%
Foz Do Iguacu14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aruko Sports
2.10
Foz Do Iguacu
0.83

Aruko Sports creates 153% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Aruko Sports
3.11
Foz Do Iguacu
1.09

allows per match

Aruko Sports
0.56
Foz Do Iguacu
1.09

finishing

Aruko Sports+0.00on par
Foz Do Iguacu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aruko Sports ↓

Foz Do Iguacu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aruko Sports or draw
86%
Aruko Sports or Foz Do Iguacu
80%
Draw or Foz Do Iguacu
33%

Winning margin

Aruko Sports wins by 2+
42%
Foz Do Iguacu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Aruko Sports 1+ goals
88%
Aruko Sports 2+ goals
62%
Aruko Sports 3+ goals
35%
Foz Do Iguacu 1+ goals
56%
Foz Do Iguacu 2+ goals
20%
Foz Do Iguacu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Aruko Sports (draw refunded)
83%
Foz Do Iguacu (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aruko Sports at home — creates 3.11, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

Foz Do Iguacu away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aruko Sports attack 3.11 + Foz Do Iguacu defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 2.10

Foz Do Iguacu attack 1.09 + Aruko Sports defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Aruko Sports scores more
67%
level
20%
Foz Do Iguacu scores more
14%

Aruko Sports at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Aruko Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
Adiel
41'
Junior Prego
62'
Giovane
90+7'
Iruan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paranaense - 2: Aruko Sports 3–1 Foz Do Iguacu

Aruko Sports beat Foz Do Iguacu 3-1 in Paranaense - 2 on July 19, 2025.

Goals: Adiel (21'), Junior Prego (41'), Giovane (62'), Iruan (90+7').