Aruko Sports 0–0 AA Iguaçu: Result & Stats

Aruko Sports

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

AA Iguaçu

4/12/2025

Paranaense - 2 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Olímpico Albino Turbay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aruko Sports75%

×Draw16%

AA Iguaçu9%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aruko SportsExpected goals in this matchAA Iguaçu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

0.71

Aruko Sports

2.41

AA Iguaçu

0.71

Aruko Sports creates 239% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

3.11

creates per match

0.86

0.56

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Aruko Sports

3.11

AA Iguaçu

0.86

allows per match

Aruko Sports

0.56

AA Iguaçu

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aruko Sports+0.00on par

AA Iguaçu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aruko Sports ↓

AA Iguaçu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Aruko Sports or draw

91%

Aruko Sports or AA Iguaçu

84%

Draw or AA Iguaçu

25%

Winning margin

Aruko Sports wins by 2+

52%

AA Iguaçu wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Aruko Sports 1+ goals

91%

Aruko Sports 2+ goals

69%

Aruko Sports 3+ goals

43%

AA Iguaçu 1+ goals

51%

AA Iguaçu 2+ goals

16%

AA Iguaçu 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Aruko Sports (draw refunded)

89%

AA Iguaçu (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aruko Sports at home — creates 3.11, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

AA Iguaçu away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aruko Sports attack 3.11 + AA Iguaçu defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.41

AA Iguaçu attack 0.86 + Aruko Sports defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Aruko Sports scores more

75%

level

16%

AA Iguaçu scores more

9%

Aruko Sports at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Aruko Sports will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff