Arucas 1–2 Villa Santa Brígida: Result & Stats

Arucas

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Villa Santa Brígida

3/28/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 28Complejo Deportivo Municipal Manuel Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Arucas49%

×Draw26%

Villa Santa Brígida25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArucasExpected goals in this matchVilla Santa Brígida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.98

Arucas

1.50

Villa Santa Brígida

0.98

Arucas creates 53% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 109 away

1.48

creates per match

0.96

1.01

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Arucas

1.48

Villa Santa Brígida

0.96

allows per match

Arucas

1.01

Villa Santa Brígida

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par

Villa Santa Brígida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

Villa Santa Brígida →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Arucas or draw

75%

Arucas or Villa Santa Brígida

74%

Draw or Villa Santa Brígida

51%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+

25%

Villa Santa Brígida wins by 2+

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals

78%

Arucas 2+ goals

44%

Arucas 3+ goals

19%

Villa Santa Brígida 1+ goals

62%

Villa Santa Brígida 2+ goals

26%

Villa Santa Brígida 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)

67%

Villa Santa Brígida (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Villa Santa Brígida away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.51 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + Villa Santa Brígida defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Villa Santa Brígida attack 0.96 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Arucas scores more

49%

level

26%

Villa Santa Brígida scores more

25%

Arucas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arucas vs Villa Santa Brígida

Villa Santa Brígida beat Arucas 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Municipal Manuel Pablo in Arucas.

Arucas vs Villa Santa Brígida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Arucas vs Villa Santa Brígida