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Arucas vs Unión Viera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Arucas
Arucas
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Unión Viera
Unión Viera
2/12/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 23Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Arucas55%
×Draw24%
Unión Viera21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arucas
1.71
Unión Viera
0.94

Arucas creates 82% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 60 away

creates per match

Arucas
1.48
Unión Viera
0.87

allows per match

Arucas
1.01
Unión Viera
1.93

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par
Unión Viera+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

Unión Viera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Arucas or draw
79%
Arucas or Unión Viera
76%
Draw or Unión Viera
45%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+
31%
Unión Viera wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals
82%
Arucas 2+ goals
51%
Arucas 3+ goals
24%
Unión Viera 1+ goals
61%
Unión Viera 2+ goals
24%
Unión Viera 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)
73%
Unión Viera (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Unión Viera away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.93 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + Unión Viera defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Unión Viera attack 0.87 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arucas scores more
55%
level
24%
Unión Viera scores more
21%

Arucas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arucas vs Unión Viera

Arucas beat Unión Viera 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno in Arucas.