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Arucas vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Arucas
Arucas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tenerife II
Tenerife II
3/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 27Complejo Deportivo Municipal Manuel Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Arucas38%
×Draw27%
Tenerife II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arucas
1.28
Tenerife II
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 74 away

creates per match

Arucas
1.48
Tenerife II
1.46

allows per match

Arucas
1.01
Tenerife II
1.08

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par
Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

Tenerife II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arucas or draw
65%
Arucas or Tenerife II
73%
Draw or Tenerife II
62%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+
17%
Tenerife II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals
72%
Arucas 2+ goals
37%
Arucas 3+ goals
14%
Tenerife II 1+ goals
71%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
35%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)
52%
Tenerife II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arucas scores more
38%
level
27%
Tenerife II scores more
35%

Arucas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arucas vs Tenerife II

Arucas and Tenerife II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Municipal Manuel Pablo in Arucas.