Arucas 2–2 Tenerife C: Result & Stats

Arucas

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tenerife C

Aythami 90'

F. Asdrubal 60' (pen)

A. Charrik 74'

R. Gutierrez 14'

12/20/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 15Complejo Deportivo Municipal Manuel Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arucas43%

×Draw25%

Tenerife C31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArucasExpected goals in this matchTenerife C

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.24

Arucas

1.50

Tenerife C

1.24

Arucas creates 21% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

1.48

creates per match

1.47

1.01

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Arucas

1.48

Tenerife C

1.47

allows per match

Arucas

1.01

Tenerife C

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par

Tenerife C+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

Tenerife C →

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arucas or draw

69%

Arucas or Tenerife C

75%

Draw or Tenerife C

57%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+

21%

Tenerife C wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals

78%

Arucas 2+ goals

44%

Arucas 3+ goals

19%

Tenerife C 1+ goals

71%

Tenerife C 2+ goals

35%

Tenerife C 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)

58%

Tenerife C (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Tenerife C away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + Tenerife C defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Tenerife C attack 1.47 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arucas scores more

43%

level

25%

Tenerife C scores more

31%

Arucas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

R. Gutierrez

60'

F. AsdrubalPenalty

74'

A. Charrik

90'

Aythami

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Arucas 2–2 Tenerife C

Arucas and Tenerife C drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 20, 2025.

Goals: R. Gutierrez (14'), F. Asdrubal (60' pen), A. Charrik (74'), Aythami (90').

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Municipal Manuel Pablo in Arucas.

Arucas vs Tenerife C — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Arucas 2–2 Tenerife C