Arucas 5–1 Santa Úrsula: Result & Stats

Arucas

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Santa Úrsula

1/14/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 16Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Arucas50%

×Draw26%

Santa Úrsula24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArucasExpected goals in this matchSanta Úrsula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.96

Arucas

1.50

Santa Úrsula

0.96

Arucas creates 56% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 92 away

1.48

creates per match

0.90

1.01

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Arucas

1.48

Santa Úrsula

0.90

allows per match

Arucas

1.01

Santa Úrsula

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par

Santa Úrsula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

Santa Úrsula →

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arucas or draw

76%

Arucas or Santa Úrsula

74%

Draw or Santa Úrsula

50%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+

25%

Santa Úrsula wins by 2+

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals

78%

Arucas 2+ goals

44%

Arucas 3+ goals

19%

Santa Úrsula 1+ goals

62%

Santa Úrsula 2+ goals

25%

Santa Úrsula 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)

67%

Santa Úrsula (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Santa Úrsula away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + Santa Úrsula defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.50

Santa Úrsula attack 0.90 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Arucas scores more

50%

level

26%

Santa Úrsula scores more

24%

Arucas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff