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Arucas vs Real Unión de Tenerife — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Arucas
Arucas
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Unión de Tenerife
Real Unión de Tenerife
D. Perez 69'
A. Luis 22'
10/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 6Complejo Deportivo Municipal Manuel Pablo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arucas48%
×Draw29%
Real Unión de Tenerife23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arucas
1.30
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.80

Arucas creates 63% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

creates per match

Arucas
1.48
Real Unión de Tenerife
0.59

allows per match

Arucas
1.01
Real Unión de Tenerife
1.12

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par
Real Unión de Tenerife+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

Real Unión de Tenerife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arucas or draw
77%
Arucas or Real Unión de Tenerife
71%
Draw or Real Unión de Tenerife
52%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+
23%
Real Unión de Tenerife wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals
73%
Arucas 2+ goals
37%
Arucas 3+ goals
14%
Real Unión de Tenerife 1+ goals
55%
Real Unión de Tenerife 2+ goals
19%
Real Unión de Tenerife 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)
68%
Real Unión de Tenerife (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Real Unión de Tenerife away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + Real Unión de Tenerife defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.30

Real Unión de Tenerife attack 0.59 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arucas scores more
48%
level
29%
Real Unión de Tenerife scores more
23%

Arucas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
A. Luis
69'
D. Perez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arucas vs Real Unión de Tenerife

Real Unión de Tenerife beat Arucas 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 11, 2025.

Goals: A. Luis (22'), D. Perez (69').

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Municipal Manuel Pablo in Arucas.