Arucas 3–0 Las Zocas: Result & Stats

Arucas

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Las Zocas

Héctor Figueroa 80'

Abraham Noé 62'

Chiqui 10'

10/16/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Arucas66%

×Draw22%

Las Zocas12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArucasExpected goals in this matchLas Zocas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.63

Arucas

1.83

Las Zocas

0.63

Arucas creates 190% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 16 away

1.48

creates per match

0.25

1.01

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Arucas

1.48

Las Zocas

0.25

allows per match

Arucas

1.01

Las Zocas

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par

Las Zocas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

Las Zocas →

0–09%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arucas or draw

88%

Arucas or Las Zocas

78%

Draw or Las Zocas

34%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+

40%

Las Zocas wins by 2+

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals

84%

Arucas 2+ goals

54%

Arucas 3+ goals

28%

Las Zocas 1+ goals

47%

Las Zocas 2+ goals

13%

Las Zocas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)

84%

Las Zocas (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Las Zocas away — creates 0.25, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + Las Zocas defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.83

Las Zocas attack 0.25 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 66%?"

Arucas scores more

66%

level

22%

Las Zocas scores more

12%

Arucas at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

62'

63'

63'

65'

Samuel← Pedro Relloso

68'

Juan Ramón← Diego Charco

71'

Delgado← Nauzet Alemán

80'

Héctor Figueroa

81'

Ubay Luzardo← Ayoze

81'

J. Flores← Chiqui

81'

David Flaco← Héctor Figueroa

83'

Adán Pérez← Dani Chinea

Arucas

Las

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Chiqui

▼

Ayoze

▼

Relloso

⚽

▼

Figueroa

Sampedro

Manager: Juan Germán

65'▲Samuel←▼Pedro Relloso

71'▲Delgado←▼Nauzet Alemán

81'▲Ubay Luzardo←▼Ayoze

81'▲J. Flores←▼Chiqui

81'▲David Flaco←▼Héctor Figueroa

Arucas substitutes

SamuelDelgadoLuzardoFloresFlaco

Manager: David Alonso

63'▲Adrián Luis←▼Tejera

63'▲Saúl Pérez←▼Tindaya

68'▲Juan Ramón←▼Diego Charco

83'▲Adán Pérez←▼Dani Chinea

Las Zocas substitutes

LuisPérezRamónPérez

Match Recap: Arucas vs Las Zocas

Arucas beat Las Zocas 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 16, 2021.

Goals: Chiqui (10'), Abraham Noé (62'), Héctor Figueroa (80').

The match was played at Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno in Arucas.

Arucas vs Las Zocas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Arucas vs Las Zocas