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Arucas vs Las Palmas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Arucas
Arucas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
3/24/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 26Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Arucas36%
×Draw27%
Las Palmas II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arucas
1.20
Las Palmas II
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 49 away

creates per match

Arucas
1.48
Las Palmas II
1.45

allows per match

Arucas
1.01
Las Palmas II
0.92

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arucas or draw
63%
Arucas or Las Palmas II
73%
Draw or Las Palmas II
64%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+
15%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals
70%
Arucas 2+ goals
34%
Arucas 3+ goals
12%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
71%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
35%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)
49%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + Las Palmas II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.20

Las Palmas II attack 1.45 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arucas scores more
36%
level
27%
Las Palmas II scores more
37%

Las Palmas II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arucas vs Las Palmas II

Arucas and Las Palmas II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 24, 2023.

The match was played at Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno in Arucas.