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Arucas vs Gran Tarajal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Arucas
Arucas
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
4/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 32Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Arucas52%
×Draw25%
Gran Tarajal23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arucas
1.61
Gran Tarajal
0.99

Arucas creates 63% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 75 away

creates per match

Arucas
1.48
Gran Tarajal
0.97

allows per match

Arucas
1.01
Gran Tarajal
1.75

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par
Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

Gran Tarajal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arucas or draw
77%
Arucas or Gran Tarajal
75%
Draw or Gran Tarajal
48%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+
27%
Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals
80%
Arucas 2+ goals
48%
Arucas 3+ goals
22%
Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
63%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
26%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)
69%
Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.61

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Arucas scores more
52%
level
25%
Gran Tarajal scores more
23%

Arucas at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arucas vs Gran Tarajal

Arucas and Gran Tarajal drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno in Arucas.