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Arucas vs Estrella — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Arucas
Arucas
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Estrella
Estrella
1/27/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 18Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Arucas64%
×Draw21%
Estrella15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arucas
1.93
Estrella
0.79

Arucas creates 144% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 32 away

creates per match

Arucas
1.48
Estrella
0.56

allows per match

Arucas
1.01
Estrella
2.38

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par
Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

Estrella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Arucas or draw
85%
Arucas or Estrella
79%
Draw or Estrella
36%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+
39%
Estrella wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals
85%
Arucas 2+ goals
57%
Arucas 3+ goals
30%
Estrella 1+ goals
55%
Estrella 2+ goals
19%
Estrella 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)
81%
Estrella (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Estrella away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + Estrella defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.93

Estrella attack 0.56 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Arucas scores more
64%
level
21%
Estrella scores more
15%

Arucas at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Arucas 2–0 Estrella

Arucas beat Estrella 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on January 27, 2023.

The match was played at Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno in Arucas.