Arua Hill 3–1 Tooro United: Result & Stats

Arua Hill

FT

3 – 1

Tooro United

12/5/2021

Premier League · Round 9Barifa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Arua Hill67%

×Draw20%

Tooro United13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arua HillExpected goals in this matchTooro United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.79

Arua Hill

2.09

Tooro United

0.79

Arua Hill creates 165% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 27 away

1.51

creates per match

0.59

1.00

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Arua Hill

1.51

Tooro United

0.59

allows per match

Arua Hill

1.00

Tooro United

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arua Hill+0.00on par

Tooro United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arua Hill ↓

Tooro United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Arua Hill or draw

87%

Arua Hill or Tooro United

80%

Draw or Tooro United

33%

Winning margin

Arua Hill wins by 2+

43%

Tooro United wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Arua Hill 1+ goals

88%

Arua Hill 2+ goals

62%

Arua Hill 3+ goals

34%

Tooro United 1+ goals

55%

Tooro United 2+ goals

19%

Tooro United 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arua Hill (draw refunded)

84%

Tooro United (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arua Hill at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Tooro United away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arua Hill attack 1.51 + Tooro United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.09

Tooro United attack 0.59 + Arua Hill defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Arua Hill scores more

67%

level

20%

Tooro United scores more

13%

Arua Hill at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Arua Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff