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Arua Hill vs Mbarara City — Premier League 2019

Arua Hill
Arua Hill
CANC
13:00
Mbarara City
Mbarara City
2/27/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Paridi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Arua Hill54%
×Draw26%
Mbarara City21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arua Hill
1.56
Mbarara City
0.86

Arua Hill creates 81% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 86 away

creates per match

Arua Hill
1.51
Mbarara City
0.72

allows per match

Arua Hill
1.00
Mbarara City
1.60

finishing

Arua Hill+0.00on par
Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arua Hill ↓

Mbarara City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Arua Hill or draw
79%
Arua Hill or Mbarara City
74%
Draw or Mbarara City
46%

Winning margin

Arua Hill wins by 2+
28%
Mbarara City wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Arua Hill 1+ goals
79%
Arua Hill 2+ goals
46%
Arua Hill 3+ goals
21%
Mbarara City 1+ goals
58%
Mbarara City 2+ goals
21%
Mbarara City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Arua Hill (draw refunded)
72%
Mbarara City (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arua Hill at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arua Hill attack 1.51 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + Arua Hill defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Arua Hill scores more
54%
level
26%
Mbarara City scores more
21%

Arua Hill at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Arua Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arua Hill face Mbarara City (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Arua Hill hosting Mbarara City. Match starts February 27, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arua Hill host Mbarara City at Paridi Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.