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Arua Hill vs KCCA — Premier League 2019

Arua Hill
Arua Hill
FT
0 – 1
KCCA
KCCA
11/26/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Barifa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Arua Hill39%
×Draw28%
KCCA33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arua Hill
1.22
KCCA
1.10

Arua Hill creates 11% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 100 away

creates per match

Arua Hill
1.51
KCCA
1.20

allows per match

Arua Hill
1.00
KCCA
0.93

finishing

Arua Hill+0.00on par
KCCA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arua Hill ↓

KCCA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arua Hill or draw
67%
Arua Hill or KCCA
72%
Draw or KCCA
61%

Winning margin

Arua Hill wins by 2+
17%
KCCA wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arua Hill 1+ goals
70%
Arua Hill 2+ goals
34%
Arua Hill 3+ goals
12%
KCCA 1+ goals
67%
KCCA 2+ goals
30%
KCCA 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Arua Hill (draw refunded)
54%
KCCA (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arua Hill at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

KCCA away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arua Hill attack 1.51 + KCCA defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.22

KCCA attack 1.20 + Arua Hill defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Arua Hill scores more
39%
level
28%
KCCA scores more
33%

Arua Hill at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arua Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arua Hill 0 – 1 KCCA

KCCA beat Arua Hill 1-0 in Premier League on November 26, 2021.

The match was played at Barifa Football Stadium in Arua.