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Arua Hill vs Gaddafi — Premier League 2019

Arua Hill
Arua Hill
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gaddafi
Gaddafi
4/22/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Barifa Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Arua Hill57%
×Draw24%
Gaddafi19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arua Hill
1.67
Gaddafi
0.83

Arua Hill creates 101% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 44 away

creates per match

Arua Hill
1.51
Gaddafi
0.66

allows per match

Arua Hill
1.00
Gaddafi
1.82

finishing

Arua Hill+0.00on par
Gaddafi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arua Hill ↓

Gaddafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Arua Hill or draw
81%
Arua Hill or Gaddafi
76%
Draw or Gaddafi
43%

Winning margin

Arua Hill wins by 2+
32%
Gaddafi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Arua Hill 1+ goals
81%
Arua Hill 2+ goals
50%
Arua Hill 3+ goals
23%
Gaddafi 1+ goals
56%
Gaddafi 2+ goals
20%
Gaddafi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Arua Hill (draw refunded)
76%
Gaddafi (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arua Hill at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches

Gaddafi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.82 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arua Hill attack 1.51 + Gaddafi defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.67

Gaddafi attack 0.66 + Arua Hill defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Arua Hill scores more
57%
level
24%
Gaddafi scores more
19%

Arua Hill at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Arua Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arua Hill vs Gaddafi

Arua Hill beat Gaddafi 2-1 in Premier League on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Barifa Football Stadium in Arua.