Arua Hill vs Busoga United — Premier League 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 37+ matches
Arua Hill54%
Busoga United21%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Arua Hill creates 79% more chances
Season form · 37 home / 69 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Arua Hill ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Arua Hill at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.00 · 37 matches
Busoga United away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.78 · 69 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Arua Hill attack 1.51 + Busoga United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.65
Busoga United attack 0.84 + Arua Hill defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Arua Hill at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Arua Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Vipers
KCCA
SC VillaBusoga United
URA
BUL
Mbarara City
Onduparaka
Express
Wakiso Giants
Kyetume
Bright Stars
Police
Maroons
Proline
Tooro UnitedIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Arua Hill host Busoga United on Tuesday, 19 April 2022 at 13:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Arua Hill vs Busoga United
Arua Hill beat Busoga United 2-0 in Premier League on April 19, 2022.
The match was played at Barifa Football Stadium in Arua.