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Artis vs Vysočina Jihlava — FNL 2019

Artis
Artis
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vysočina Jihlava
Vysočina Jihlava
7/29/2023FNLFNL · Round 2Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Artis48%
×Draw25%
Vysočina Jihlava27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artis
1.60
Vysočina Jihlava
1.13

Artis creates 42% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

creates per match

Artis
1.53
Vysočina Jihlava
1.16

allows per match

Artis
1.09
Vysočina Jihlava
1.68

finishing

Artis+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Vysočina Jihlava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Artis or draw
73%
Artis or Vysočina Jihlava
75%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava
52%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+
25%
Vysočina Jihlava wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals
80%
Artis 2+ goals
47%
Artis 3+ goals
22%
Vysočina Jihlava 1+ goals
68%
Vysočina Jihlava 2+ goals
31%
Vysočina Jihlava 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)
64%
Vysočina Jihlava (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Vysočina Jihlava away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Vysočina Jihlava defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.60

Vysočina Jihlava attack 1.16 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Artis scores more
48%
level
25%
Vysočina Jihlava scores more
27%

Artis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Artis vs Vysočina Jihlava

Vysočina Jihlava beat Artis 2-1 in FNL on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SK Líšeň in Brno.