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Artis vs Vlašim — FNL 2019

Artis
Artis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vlašim
Vlašim
3/8/2025FNLFNL · Round 18Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Artis46%
×Draw25%
Vlašim29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artis
1.55
Vlašim
1.17

Artis creates 32% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

creates per match

Artis
1.53
Vlašim
1.25

allows per match

Artis
1.09
Vlašim
1.57

finishing

Artis+0.00on par
Vlašim+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Vlašim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Artis or draw
71%
Artis or Vlašim
75%
Draw or Vlašim
54%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+
23%
Vlašim wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals
79%
Artis 2+ goals
46%
Artis 3+ goals
20%
Vlašim 1+ goals
69%
Vlašim 2+ goals
33%
Vlašim 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)
62%
Vlašim (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Vlašim away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.57 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Vlašim defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.55

Vlašim attack 1.25 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Artis scores more
46%
level
25%
Vlašim scores more
29%

Artis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Artis vs Vlašim

Artis beat Vlašim 1-0 in FNL on March 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion SK Líšeň in Brno.