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Artis vs Třinec — FNL 2019

Artis
Artis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Třinec
Třinec
5/20/2023FNLFNL · Round 28Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Artis54%
×Draw24%
Třinec22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artis
1.74
Třinec
1.03

Artis creates 69% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 58 away

creates per match

Artis
1.53
Třinec
0.97

allows per match

Artis
1.09
Třinec
1.95

finishing

Artis+0.00on par
Třinec+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Třinec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Artis or draw
78%
Artis or Třinec
76%
Draw or Třinec
46%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+
30%
Třinec wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals
82%
Artis 2+ goals
52%
Artis 3+ goals
25%
Třinec 1+ goals
64%
Třinec 2+ goals
28%
Třinec 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)
71%
Třinec (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Třinec away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.95 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Třinec defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.74

Třinec attack 0.97 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Artis scores more
54%
level
24%
Třinec scores more
22%

Artis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Artis vs Třinec

Artis beat Třinec 1-0 in FNL on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion SK Líšeň in Brno.