Artis 1–3 Baník Sokolov: Result & Stats | FNL

Artis

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Baník Sokolov

6/24/2020

FNL · Round 26Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Artis59%

×Draw23%

Baník Sokolov18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArtisExpected goals in this matchBaník Sokolov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.91

Artis

1.83

Baník Sokolov

0.91

Artis creates 101% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 15 away

1.53

creates per match

0.73

1.09

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Artis

1.53

Baník Sokolov

0.73

allows per match

Artis

1.09

Baník Sokolov

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Artis+0.00on par

Baník Sokolov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Baník Sokolov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Artis or draw

82%

Artis or Baník Sokolov

77%

Draw or Baník Sokolov

41%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+

34%

Baník Sokolov wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals

84%

Artis 2+ goals

54%

Artis 3+ goals

28%

Baník Sokolov 1+ goals

60%

Baník Sokolov 2+ goals

23%

Baník Sokolov 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)

76%

Baník Sokolov (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Baník Sokolov away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Baník Sokolov defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Baník Sokolov attack 0.73 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Artis scores more

59%

level

23%

Baník Sokolov scores more

18%

Artis at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Artis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff