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Artilheiros vs CPK — Primeira Divisão 2026

Artilheiros
Artilheiros
FT
1 – 10
HT: 0 – 6
CPK
CPK
6/27/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Artilheiros3%
×Draw5%
CPK92%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artilheiros
1.07
CPK
5.30

CPK creates 395% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 29 away

creates per match

Artilheiros
1.38
CPK
4.97

allows per match

Artilheiros
5.63
CPK
0.76

finishing

Artilheiros+0.00on par
CPK+0.00on par

Total goals

93%Over
  • Over93
  • Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artilheiros ↓

CPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–36%
0–48%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–24%
1–36%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–22%
2–33%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 54% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
93%7%3.5
83%17%4.5
67%33%

Double chance

Artilheiros or draw
8%
Artilheiros or CPK
95%
Draw or CPK
97%

Winning margin

Artilheiros wins by 2+
1%
CPK wins by 2+
81%

Team goals

Artilheiros 1+ goals
66%
Artilheiros 2+ goals
29%
Artilheiros 3+ goals
9%
CPK 1+ goals
99%
CPK 2+ goals
96%
CPK 3+ goals
86%

Draw no bet

Artilheiros (draw refunded)
3%
CPK (draw refunded)
97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artilheiros at home — creates 1.38, concedes 5.63 · 8 matches

CPK away — creates 4.97, concedes 0.76 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artilheiros attack 1.38 + CPK defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.07

CPK attack 4.97 + Artilheiros defence 5.63 → ÷2 → 5.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Artilheiros scores more
3%
level
5%
CPK scores more
92%

CPK at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "CPK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Artilheiros vs CPK

CPK beat Artilheiros 10-1 in Primeira Divisão on June 27, 2026.