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Artilheiros vs Cheng Fung — Primeira Divisão 2026

Artilheiros
Artilheiros
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cheng Fung
Cheng Fung
1/18/2026Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Artilheiros10%
×Draw12%
Cheng Fung78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Artilheiros
1.38
Cheng Fung
3.76

Cheng Fung creates 172% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 35 away

creates per match

Artilheiros
1.38
Cheng Fung
1.89

allows per match

Artilheiros
5.63
Cheng Fung
1.37

finishing

Artilheiros+0.00on par
Cheng Fung+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artilheiros ↓

Cheng Fung →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–26%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
73%27%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Artilheiros or draw
22%
Artilheiros or Cheng Fung
88%
Draw or Cheng Fung
90%

Winning margin

Artilheiros wins by 2+
4%
Cheng Fung wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Artilheiros 1+ goals
75%
Artilheiros 2+ goals
40%
Artilheiros 3+ goals
16%
Cheng Fung 1+ goals
97%
Cheng Fung 2+ goals
88%
Cheng Fung 3+ goals
70%

Draw no bet

Artilheiros (draw refunded)
11%
Cheng Fung (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artilheiros at home — creates 1.38, concedes 5.63 · 8 matches

Cheng Fung away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artilheiros attack 1.38 + Cheng Fung defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cheng Fung attack 1.89 + Artilheiros defence 5.63 → ÷2 → 3.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Artilheiros scores more
10%
level
12%
Cheng Fung scores more
78%

Cheng Fung at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Cheng Fung will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Artilheiros 2–2 Cheng Fung

Artilheiros and Cheng Fung drew 2-2 in Primeira Divisão on January 18, 2026.