Artigas 0–1 Rampla Juniors: Result & Stats

Artigas

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rampla Juniors

S. Diaz 9'

8/2/2025

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Atilio Paiva Olivera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Artigas41%

×Draw26%

Rampla Juniors33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArtigasExpected goals in this matchRampla Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.21

Artigas

1.39

Rampla Juniors

1.21

Artigas creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

1.13

creates per match

0.53

1.88

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Artigas

1.13

Rampla Juniors

0.53

allows per match

Artigas

1.88

Rampla Juniors

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Artigas+0.00on par

Rampla Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artigas ↓

Rampla Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Artigas or draw

67%

Artigas or Rampla Juniors

74%

Draw or Rampla Juniors

59%

Winning margin

Artigas wins by 2+

19%

Rampla Juniors wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Artigas 1+ goals

75%

Artigas 2+ goals

40%

Artigas 3+ goals

16%

Rampla Juniors 1+ goals

70%

Rampla Juniors 2+ goals

34%

Rampla Juniors 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Artigas (draw refunded)

56%

Rampla Juniors (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artigas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Rampla Juniors away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artigas attack 1.13 + Rampla Juniors defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rampla Juniors attack 0.53 + Artigas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Artigas scores more

41%

level

26%

Rampla Juniors scores more

33%

Artigas at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Artigas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

S. Diaz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff