Artigas 1–2 Oriental: Result & Stats

Artigas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Oriental

L. Troncoso 8'

Unknown 57'

G. Colman 30' (pen)

6/28/2025

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Atilio Paiva Olivera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Artigas29%

×Draw25%

Oriental45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArtigasExpected goals in this matchOriental

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.52

Artigas

1.17

Oriental

1.52

Oriental creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

1.13

creates per match

1.17

1.88

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Artigas

1.13

Oriental

1.17

allows per match

Artigas

1.88

Oriental

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Artigas+0.00on par

Oriental+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artigas ↓

Oriental →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Artigas or draw

55%

Artigas or Oriental

75%

Draw or Oriental

71%

Winning margin

Artigas wins by 2+

12%

Oriental wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Artigas 1+ goals

69%

Artigas 2+ goals

33%

Artigas 3+ goals

11%

Oriental 1+ goals

78%

Oriental 2+ goals

45%

Oriental 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Artigas (draw refunded)

39%

Oriental (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artigas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Oriental away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artigas attack 1.13 + Oriental defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Oriental attack 1.17 + Artigas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Artigas scores more

29%

level

25%

Oriental scores more

45%

Oriental at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oriental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

L. Troncoso

30'

G. ColmanPenalty

57'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff