Artigas 2–2 Cerrito: Result & Stats

Artigas

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cerrito

M. Callero 90+3'

B. Barja 16'

L. Batista 49'

F. Millacet 31'

8/9/2025

Segunda División · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Atilio Paiva Olivera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Artigas38%

×Draw25%

Cerrito37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArtigasExpected goals in this matchCerrito

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.44

Artigas

1.47

Cerrito

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

1.13

creates per match

1.00

1.88

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Artigas

1.13

Cerrito

1.00

allows per match

Artigas

1.88

Cerrito

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Artigas+0.00on par

Cerrito+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artigas ↓

Cerrito →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Artigas or draw

63%

Artigas or Cerrito

75%

Draw or Cerrito

62%

Winning margin

Artigas wins by 2+

18%

Cerrito wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Artigas 1+ goals

77%

Artigas 2+ goals

43%

Artigas 3+ goals

18%

Cerrito 1+ goals

76%

Cerrito 2+ goals

42%

Cerrito 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Artigas (draw refunded)

51%

Cerrito (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artigas at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

Cerrito away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artigas attack 1.13 + Cerrito defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.47

Cerrito attack 1.00 + Artigas defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Artigas scores more

38%

level

25%

Cerrito scores more

37%

Artigas at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Artigas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

B. Barja

31'

F. Millacet

49'

L. Batista

90+3'

M. Callero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff