Arsenal W 6–0 Rangers W: Result & Stats

Arsenal W

FT

6 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rangers W

C. Foord 90', 69', 59', 16'

K. Little 86' (pen)

A. Russo 60'

9/4/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - Semi-finalsMeadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Arsenal W64%

×Draw18%

Rangers W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal WExpected goals in this matchRangers W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.25

Arsenal W

2.48

Rangers W

1.25

Arsenal W creates 98% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 4 away

2.45

creates per match

1.75

0.74

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Arsenal W

2.45

Rangers W

1.75

allows per match

Arsenal W

0.74

Rangers W

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal W+0.00on par

Rangers W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal W ↓

Rangers W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Arsenal W or draw

82%

Arsenal W or Rangers W

82%

Draw or Rangers W

36%

Winning margin

Arsenal W wins by 2+

42%

Rangers W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Arsenal W 1+ goals

92%

Arsenal W 2+ goals

70%

Arsenal W 3+ goals

44%

Rangers W 1+ goals

71%

Rangers W 2+ goals

36%

Rangers W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Arsenal W (draw refunded)

78%

Rangers W (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal W at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Rangers W away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal W attack 2.45 + Rangers W defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.48

Rangers W attack 1.75 + Arsenal W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Arsenal W scores more

64%

level

18%

Rangers W scores more

18%

Arsenal W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Arsenal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

46'

59'

60'

67'

67'

T. Middag← L. Rafferty

69'

C. Foord

70'

S. Blackstenius← A. Russo

71'

R. Kafaji← F. Maanum

79'

L. Wälti← K. Cooney-Cross

79'

L. Wienroither← E. Fox

86'

K. LittlePenalty

87'

K. Kühl← Mariona Caldentey

87'

L. Berry← K. Wilkinson

90'

C. Foord

Arsenal

Rangers

22

Esson

2

Docherty

4

Hill

5

▼

Rafferty

3

Eddie

7

▼

Hay

24

McLoughli

44

▼

Wilkinson

15

Arnot

9

▼

10

1

11

6

2

▼

Fox

5

Codina

10

⚽

Little

12

▼

Maanum

32

▼

Cooney-Cr

19

⚽4

Foord

8

▼

Caldentey

23

⚽

▼

Russo

Manager: J. Eidevall

70'▲S. Blackstenius←▼A. Russo

71'▲R. Kafaji←▼F. Maanum

79'▲L. Wälti←▼K. Cooney-Cross

79'▲L. Wienroither←▼E. Fox

87'▲K. Kühl←▼Mariona Caldentey

Arsenal W substitutes

25Blackstenius16Kafaji13Wälti26Wienroither22Kühl59Agyemang3Wubben-Moy53Lia62Reid56Godfrey14Domselaar40Williams

Manager: J. Potter

46'▲M. McAulay←▼B. Hay

67'▲C. Lafaix←▼K. Howat

67'▲T. Middag←▼L. Rafferty

87'▲L. Berry←▼K. Wilkinson

Rangers W substitutes

14McAulay20Lafaix6Middag18Berry26McLeary40Black1Fife16Austin