Arsenal W 5–1 Leicester City FC W: Result & Stats

Arsenal W

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Leicester City FC W

4/15/2025

FA WSL · Round 19Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Arsenal W80%

×Draw13%

Leicester City FC W7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal WExpected goals in this matchLeicester City FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.66

0.64

Arsenal W

2.66

Leicester City FC W

0.64

Arsenal W creates 316% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 55 away

2.96

creates per match

0.58

0.69

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Arsenal W

2.96

Leicester City FC W

0.58

allows per match

Arsenal W

0.69

Leicester City FC W

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal W+0.00on par

Leicester City FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal W ↓

Leicester City FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Arsenal W or draw

93%

Arsenal W or Leicester City FC W

87%

Draw or Leicester City FC W

20%

Winning margin

Arsenal W wins by 2+

59%

Leicester City FC W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Arsenal W 1+ goals

93%

Arsenal W 2+ goals

74%

Arsenal W 3+ goals

49%

Leicester City FC W 1+ goals

47%

Leicester City FC W 2+ goals

14%

Leicester City FC W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Arsenal W (draw refunded)

92%

Leicester City FC W (draw refunded)

8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal W at home — creates 2.96, concedes 0.69 · 83 matches

Leicester City FC W away — creates 0.58, concedes 2.36 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal W attack 2.96 + Leicester City FC W defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.66

Leicester City FC W attack 0.58 + Arsenal W defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Arsenal W scores more

80%

level

13%

Leicester City FC W scores more

7%

Arsenal W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Arsenal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff