Arsenal W 4–0 Häcken W: Result & Stats

Arsenal W

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Häcken W

9/26/2024

UEFA Champions League Women · 2nd RoundMeadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Arsenal W68%

×Draw19%

Häcken W13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal WExpected goals in this matchHäcken W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.82

Arsenal W

2.14

Häcken W

0.82

Arsenal W creates 161% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

2.45

creates per match

0.91

0.74

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Arsenal W

2.45

Häcken W

0.91

allows per match

Arsenal W

0.74

Häcken W

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal W+0.00on par

Häcken W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal W ↓

Häcken W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Arsenal W or draw

87%

Arsenal W or Häcken W

81%

Draw or Häcken W

32%

Winning margin

Arsenal W wins by 2+

43%

Häcken W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Arsenal W 1+ goals

88%

Arsenal W 2+ goals

63%

Arsenal W 3+ goals

36%

Häcken W 1+ goals

56%

Häcken W 2+ goals

20%

Häcken W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arsenal W (draw refunded)

84%

Häcken W (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal W at home — creates 2.45, concedes 0.74 · 31 matches

Häcken W away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal W attack 2.45 + Häcken W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.14

Häcken W attack 0.91 + Arsenal W defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Arsenal W scores more

68%

level

19%

Häcken W scores more

13%

Arsenal W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Arsenal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff