Arsenal W 5–0 Crystal Palace W: Result & Stats

Arsenal W

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crystal Palace W

1/19/2025

FA WSL · Round 11Meadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Arsenal W80%

×Draw12%

Crystal Palace W8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal WExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.02

0.84

Arsenal W

3.02

Crystal Palace W

0.84

Arsenal W creates 260% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 11 away

2.96

creates per match

1.00

0.69

allows per match

3.09

creates per match

Arsenal W

2.96

Crystal Palace W

1.00

allows per match

Arsenal W

0.69

Crystal Palace W

3.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal W+0.00on par

Crystal Palace W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal W ↓

Crystal Palace W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Arsenal W or draw

92%

Arsenal W or Crystal Palace W

88%

Draw or Crystal Palace W

20%

Winning margin

Arsenal W wins by 2+

61%

Crystal Palace W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Arsenal W 1+ goals

95%

Arsenal W 2+ goals

80%

Arsenal W 3+ goals

57%

Crystal Palace W 1+ goals

57%

Crystal Palace W 2+ goals

21%

Crystal Palace W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arsenal W (draw refunded)

91%

Crystal Palace W (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal W at home — creates 2.96, concedes 0.69 · 83 matches

Crystal Palace W away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal W attack 2.96 + Crystal Palace W defence 3.09 → ÷2 → 3.02

Crystal Palace W attack 1.00 + Arsenal W defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Arsenal W scores more

80%

level

12%

Crystal Palace W scores more

8%

Arsenal W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Arsenal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff