Arsenal 3–0 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Stoke City

A. Sánchez 49', 33'

L. Koscielny 6'

1/11/2015

Premier League · Round 21Emirates Stadium (London)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Arsenal59%

×Draw23%

Stoke City19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

0.92

Arsenal

1.83

Stoke City

0.92

Arsenal creates 99% more chances

Season form · 210 home / 74 away

2.05

creates per match

0.91

0.93

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Arsenal

2.05

Stoke City

0.91

allows per match

Arsenal

0.93

Stoke City

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par

Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

81%

Arsenal or Stoke City

77%

Draw or Stoke City

41%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

34%

Stoke City wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

84%

Arsenal 2+ goals

54%

Arsenal 3+ goals

28%

Stoke City 1+ goals

60%

Stoke City 2+ goals

23%

Stoke City 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

76%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.93 · 210 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.61 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.05 + Stoke City defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.83

Stoke City attack 0.91 + Arsenal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Arsenal scores more

59%

level

23%

Stoke City scores more

19%

Arsenal at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

L. Koscielny↳ A. Sánchez

13'

Bellerín← M. Debuchy

33'

A. Sánchez↳ T. Rosický

46'

Muniesa← E. Pieters

46'

S. Sidwell← S. NZonzi

49'

51'

61'

63'

68'

T. Walcott← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

73'

M. Özil← O. Giroud

73'

S. Ireland← Bojan

Possession

Statistics

ArsenalStoke

Overview

54%Possession46%

9Corners1

11Fouls11

Shots

6On Target3

7Off Target4

Passing

54%Possession46%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls11

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides3