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Arsenal vs Sheffield Utd — Premier League 2026

Arsenal
Arsenal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd
10/4/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Arsenal64%
×Draw22%
Sheffield Utd14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal
1.86
Sheffield Utd
0.74

Arsenal creates 151% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 10 away

creates per match

Arsenal
1.74
Sheffield Utd
0.66

allows per match

Arsenal
0.81
Sheffield Utd
1.98

finishing

Arsenal+0.28scores more
Sheffield Utd+0.04on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Sheffield Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw
86%
Arsenal or Sheffield Utd
78%
Draw or Sheffield Utd
36%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+
38%
Sheffield Utd wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals
84%
Arsenal 2+ goals
55%
Arsenal 3+ goals
28%
Sheffield Utd 1+ goals
52%
Sheffield Utd 2+ goals
17%
Sheffield Utd 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)
82%
Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.81 · 48 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 1.74 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.86

Sheffield Utd attack 0.66 + Arsenal defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Arsenal scores more
64%
level
22%
Sheffield Utd scores more
14%

Arsenal at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal vs Sheffield Utd

Arsenal beat Sheffield Utd 2-1 in Premier League on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Emirates Stadium in London.