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Arsenal vs Shakhtyor Petrikov — 1. Division 2018

Arsenal
Arsenal
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Shakhtyor Petrikov
Shakhtyor Petrikov
4/2/20231. Division1. Division · Round 1Stadyen RTsOP-BGU

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Arsenal56%
×Draw21%
Shakhtyor Petrikov22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal
2.02
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.19

Arsenal creates 70% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 62 away

creates per match

Arsenal
2.35
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.53

allows per match

Arsenal
0.85
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.68

finishing

Arsenal+0.00on par
Shakhtyor Petrikov+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Shakhtyor Petrikov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw
78%
Arsenal or Shakhtyor Petrikov
79%
Draw or Shakhtyor Petrikov
44%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+
33%
Shakhtyor Petrikov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals
87%
Arsenal 2+ goals
60%
Arsenal 3+ goals
33%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 1+ goals
70%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 2+ goals
33%
Shakhtyor Petrikov 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)
72%
Shakhtyor Petrikov (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.85 · 46 matches

Shakhtyor Petrikov away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.68 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.35 + Shakhtyor Petrikov defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.02

Shakhtyor Petrikov attack 1.53 + Arsenal defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Arsenal scores more
56%
level
21%
Shakhtyor Petrikov scores more
22%

Arsenal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Arsenal 5–1 Shakhtyor Petrikov

Arsenal beat Shakhtyor Petrikov 5-1 in 1. Division on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen RTsOP-BGU in Minsk.