Arsenal 2–0 Olympiakos Piraeus: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Olympiakos Piraeus

B. Saka 90'

G. Martinelli 12'

10/1/2025

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Arsenal62%

×Draw22%

Olympiakos Piraeus16%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchOlympiakos Piraeus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.79

Arsenal

1.84

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.79

Arsenal creates 133% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

2.06

creates per match

0.90

0.69

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Arsenal

2.06

Olympiakos Piraeus

0.90

allows per match

Arsenal

0.69

Olympiakos Piraeus

1.63

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Arsenal-0.17scores less

Olympiakos Piraeus-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

84%

Arsenal or Olympiakos Piraeus

78%

Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus

38%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

37%

Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

84%

Arsenal 2+ goals

55%

Arsenal 3+ goals

28%

Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals

55%

Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals

19%

Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

80%

Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.69 · 9 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.63 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 2.06 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.84

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.90 + Arsenal defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Arsenal scores more

62%

level

22%

Olympiakos Piraeus scores more

16%

Arsenal at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

G. Martinelli↳ V. Gyokeres

58'

58'

59'

61'

62'

M. Taremi← G. Martins

73'

B. Saka← L. Trossard

73'

E. Eze← G. Martinelli

75'

C. Mosquera← Gabriel

75'

L. Scipioni← D. Garcia

78'

Declan Rice

85'

G. Biancone← P. Retsos

85'

C. Mouzakitis← S. Hezze

86'

G. Strefezza← Chiquinho

90'

Gabriel Strefezza

90'

B. Saka↳ M. Odegaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalOlympiakos

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots10

2.90Expected Goals (xG)0.50

3Corners5

14Fouls17

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target3

6Off Target2

5Blocked5

15Inside Box7

1Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

496Total Passes307

407Accurate Passes223

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

-0.11Goals Prevented-0.11

Discipline

14Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4