Arsenal 2–0 Everton: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Everton

3/14/2026

Premier League · Round 30Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Arsenal54%

×Draw24%

Everton22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchEverton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.99

Arsenal

1.71

Everton

0.99

Arsenal creates 73% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 33 away

1.72

creates per match

1.15

0.83

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Arsenal

1.72

Everton

1.15

allows per match

Arsenal

0.83

Everton

1.69

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Arsenal+0.35scores more

Everton-0.12scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Everton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

78%

Arsenal or Everton

76%

Draw or Everton

46%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

30%

Everton wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

82%

Arsenal 2+ goals

51%

Arsenal 3+ goals

24%

Everton 1+ goals

63%

Everton 2+ goals

26%

Everton 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

71%

Everton (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Everton away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 1.72 + Everton defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.71

Everton attack 1.15 + Arsenal defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Arsenal scores more

54%

level

24%

Everton scores more

22%

Arsenal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalEverton

Overview

65%Possession35%

25Total Shots9

2.70Expected Goals (xG)1.05

8Corners3

11Fouls12

Shots

25Total Shots9

7On Target3

9Off Target2

9Blocked4

12Inside Box5

13Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

581Total Passes321

503Accurate Passes238

87%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0.24Goals Prevented0.24

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Offsides1