Arsenal 1–2 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Chelsea

P. Aubameyang 13'

T. Abraham 87'

Jorginho 83'

12/29/2019

Premier League · Round 20Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

Arsenal48%

×Draw25%

Chelsea27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.15

Arsenal

1.63

Chelsea

1.15

Arsenal creates 42% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

1.77

creates per match

1.49

0.81

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Arsenal

1.77

Chelsea

1.49

allows per match

Arsenal

0.81

Chelsea

1.49

+0.52scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.52scores more

Chelsea-0.06on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

73%

Arsenal or Chelsea

75%

Draw or Chelsea

52%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

25%

Chelsea wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

80%

Arsenal 2+ goals

48%

Arsenal 3+ goals

22%

Chelsea 1+ goals

68%

Chelsea 2+ goals

32%

Chelsea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

64%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.81 · 35 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 1.77 + Chelsea defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.63

Chelsea attack 1.49 + Arsenal defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Arsenal scores more

48%

level

25%

Chelsea scores more

27%

Arsenal at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Willian

Chelsea · F

8.2

Match Events

10'

Mattéo Guendouzi

13'

P. Aubameyang↳ C. Chambers

23'

S. Mustafi← C. Chambers

30'

N'Golo Kanté

30'

Mason Mount

34'

Antonio Rüdiger

34'

Jorginho← Emerson

47'

David Luiz

55'

Jorginho

59'

T. Lamptey← F. Tomori

70'

C. Hudson-Odoi← M. Kovačić

73'

76'

77'

83'

86'

87'

90'

Ainsley Maitland-Niles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalChelsea

Overview

42%Possession58%

7Total Shots13

2Corners3

13Fouls19

Shots

7Total Shots13

2On Target4

5Off Target6

0Blocked3

6Inside Box10

1Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

427Total Passes577

337Accurate Passes482

79%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls19

5Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Premier League: Arsenal 1–2 Chelsea

Chelsea beat Arsenal 2-1 in Premier League on December 29, 2019.

Goals: P. Aubameyang (13'), Jorginho (83'), T. Abraham (87').

Chelsea controlled possession (58%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Emirates Stadium in London.

Arsenal vs Chelsea — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Premier League: Arsenal 1–2 Chelsea