Arsenal 2–1 Burnley: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burnley

A. Sánchez 90+8' (pen)

S. Mustafi 59'

A. Gray 90+3' (pen)

1/22/2017

Premier League · Round 22Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Arsenal64%

×Draw21%

Burnley15%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

0.81

Arsenal

1.93

Burnley

0.81

Arsenal creates 138% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 21 away

1.76

creates per match

0.79

0.84

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Arsenal

1.76

Burnley

0.79

allows per match

Arsenal

0.84

Burnley

2.10

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Arsenal+0.49scores more

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

85%

Arsenal or Burnley

79%

Draw or Burnley

36%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

38%

Burnley wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

85%

Arsenal 2+ goals

57%

Arsenal 3+ goals

30%

Burnley 1+ goals

56%

Burnley 2+ goals

19%

Burnley 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

81%

Burnley (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.84 · 36 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 1.76 + Burnley defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.93

Burnley attack 0.79 + Arsenal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Arsenal scores more

64%

level

21%

Burnley scores more

15%

Arsenal at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. Koscielny

Arsenal · D

8.1

Match Events

58'

Matthew Lowton

59'

S. Mustafi↳ M. Özil

65'

Granit Xhaka

69'

F. Coquelin← A. Iwobi

73'

J. Barton← J. Hendrick

74'

Dean Marney

76'

J. Tarkowski← D. Marney

77'

S. Vokes← S. Defour

87'

D. Welbeck← O. Giroud

89'

Bellerín← M. Özil

90'

Shkodran Mustafi

90'

Ashley Barnes

90+3'

A. GrayPenalty

90+8'

A. SánchezPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArsenalBurnley

Overview

69%Possession31%

24Total Shots13

10Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

24Total Shots13

8On Target7

7Off Target3

9Blocked3

15Inside Box7

9Outside Box6

Passing

69%Possession31%

578Total Passes237

502Accurate Passes158

87%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

6Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0