Arsenal 1–1 Brentford: Result & Stats

Arsenal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brentford

4/12/2025

Premier League · Round 32Emirates Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Arsenal53%

×Draw24%

Brentford23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArsenalExpected goals in this matchBrentford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.01

Arsenal

1.69

Brentford

1.01

Arsenal creates 67% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

1.75

creates per match

1.18

0.84

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Arsenal

1.75

Brentford

1.18

allows per match

Arsenal

0.84

Brentford

1.63

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Arsenal+0.49scores more

Brentford+0.05on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal ↓

Brentford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Arsenal or draw

77%

Arsenal or Brentford

76%

Draw or Brentford

47%

Winning margin

Arsenal wins by 2+

29%

Brentford wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Arsenal 1+ goals

82%

Arsenal 2+ goals

50%

Arsenal 3+ goals

24%

Brentford 1+ goals

64%

Brentford 2+ goals

27%

Brentford 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Arsenal (draw refunded)

70%

Brentford (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.84 · 37 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal attack 1.75 + Brentford defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.69

Brentford attack 1.18 + Arsenal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Arsenal scores more

53%

level

24%

Brentford scores more

23%

Arsenal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff