Arsenal U18 2–6 Aston Villa U18: Result & Stats

Arsenal U18

FT

2 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Aston Villa U18

C. O'Neill 89' (pen)

M. Frohock 76'

V. Hayward 90'

A. Lynskey 55', 37'

M. Meade 45'

M. Hashi 34' (OG)

J. McGrath 8'

11/1/2025

League #696 · South - 9Sobha Realty Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Arsenal U1832%

×Draw18%

Aston Villa U1851%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal U18Expected goals in this matchAston Villa U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

3.17

Arsenal U18

2.52

Aston Villa U18

3.17

Aston Villa U18 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 58 away

2.67

creates per match

2.34

4.00

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Arsenal U18

2.67

Aston Villa U18

2.34

allows per match

Arsenal U18

4.00

Aston Villa U18

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal U18+0.00on par

Aston Villa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over92
Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes88
No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal U18 ↓

Aston Villa U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–22%

0–32%

0–42%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–25%

1–35%

1–44%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–45%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–25%

3–35%

3–44%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–33%

4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

92%8%3.5

81%19%4.5

65%35%

Double chance

Arsenal U18 or draw

49%

Arsenal U18 or Aston Villa U18

82%

Draw or Aston Villa U18

68%

Winning margin

Arsenal U18 wins by 2+

17%

Aston Villa U18 wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Arsenal U18 1+ goals

92%

Arsenal U18 2+ goals

71%

Arsenal U18 3+ goals

45%

Aston Villa U18 1+ goals

96%

Aston Villa U18 2+ goals

82%

Aston Villa U18 3+ goals

60%

Draw no bet

Arsenal U18 (draw refunded)

38%

Aston Villa U18 (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

85%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal U18 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Aston Villa U18 away — creates 2.34, concedes 2.38 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal U18 attack 2.67 + Aston Villa U18 defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.52

Aston Villa U18 attack 2.34 + Arsenal U18 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Arsenal U18 scores more

32%

level

18%

Aston Villa U18 scores more

51%

Aston Villa U18 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aston Villa U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

J. McGrath↳ M. Meade

34'

M. HashiOwn goal

37'

A. Lynskey

45'

M. Meade

55'

A. Lynskey↳ J. McGrath

76'

M. Frohock

89'

C. O'NeillPenalty

90'

V. Hayward

Arsenal

Aston

Manager: Adam Stephen Birchall

Manager: Richard Beale