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Arsenal Tula vs Volgar Astrakhan — First League 2018

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Volgar Astrakhan
Volgar Astrakhan
3/18/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 23Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Arsenal Tula42%
×Draw29%
Volgar Astrakhan29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.21
Volgar Astrakhan
0.96

Arsenal Tula creates 26% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 76 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.17
Volgar Astrakhan
0.93

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.99
Volgar Astrakhan
1.24

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
Volgar Astrakhan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Volgar Astrakhan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
71%
Arsenal Tula or Volgar Astrakhan
71%
Draw or Volgar Astrakhan
58%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
18%
Volgar Astrakhan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
70%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
34%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
12%
Volgar Astrakhan 1+ goals
62%
Volgar Astrakhan 2+ goals
25%
Volgar Astrakhan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
59%
Volgar Astrakhan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

Volgar Astrakhan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + Volgar Astrakhan defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Volgar Astrakhan attack 0.93 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
42%
level
29%
Volgar Astrakhan scores more
29%

Arsenal Tula at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arsenal Tula vs Volgar Astrakhan

Arsenal Tula and Volgar Astrakhan drew 0-0 in First League on March 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Arsenal in Tula.