Arsenal Tula 1–0 Ural: Result & Stats

Arsenal Tula

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ural

M. Odeyinka 61'

9/16/2024

First League · Round 10Stadion Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Arsenal Tula37%

×Draw29%

Ural34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arsenal TulaExpected goals in this matchUral

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.10

Arsenal Tula

1.16

Ural

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

1.17

creates per match

1.21

0.99

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Arsenal Tula

1.17

Ural

1.21

allows per match

Arsenal Tula

0.99

Ural

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par

Ural+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Ural →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw

66%

Arsenal Tula or Ural

71%

Draw or Ural

63%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+

15%

Ural wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals

69%

Arsenal Tula 2+ goals

32%

Arsenal Tula 3+ goals

11%

Ural 1+ goals

67%

Ural 2+ goals

30%

Ural 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)

52%

Ural (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.99 · 69 matches

Ural away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.17 + Ural defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Ural attack 1.21 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more

37%

level

29%

Ural scores more

34%

Arsenal Tula at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Vladislav Levin

46'

M. Sekulić← M. Voronov

46'

E. Mosin← Y. Zheleznov

61'

M. Odeyinka

64'

D. Miškić← T. Ayupov

64'

E. Bicfalvi← A. Ionov

72'

M. Turishchev← D. Lipovoy

72'

E. Shevchenko← V. Levin

72'

G. Zhilkin← S. Tkachev

75'

A. Korotkov← M. Odeyinka

77'

Leo Goglichidze

80'

I. Porokhov← F. Sungatulin

90'

N. Pechenkin← A. Tsaraev

Statistics

ArsenalUral

Discipline

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0