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Arsenal Tula vs Rotor Volgograd — First League 2024

Arsenal Tula
Arsenal Tula
Preview
15:00
Rotor Volgograd
Rotor Volgograd
8/19/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion Arsenal
35%
Arsenal Tula
model favours
35%30%35%

Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
67%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Arsenal Tula35%
×Draw30%
Rotor Volgograd35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula
1.02
Rotor Volgograd
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula
1.10
Rotor Volgograd
1.15

allows per match

Arsenal Tula
0.90
Rotor Volgograd
0.95

finishing

Arsenal Tula+0.00on par
Rotor Volgograd+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula ↓

Rotor Volgograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula or draw
65%
Arsenal Tula or Rotor Volgograd
70%
Draw or Rotor Volgograd
65%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula wins by 2+
13%
Rotor Volgograd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula 1+ goals
64%
Arsenal Tula 2+ goals
27%
Arsenal Tula 3+ goals
8%
Rotor Volgograd 1+ goals
64%
Rotor Volgograd 2+ goals
27%
Rotor Volgograd 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula (draw refunded)
50%
Rotor Volgograd (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

Rotor Volgograd away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.95 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula attack 1.10 + Rotor Volgograd defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.02

Rotor Volgograd attack 1.15 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Arsenal Tula scores more
35%
level
30%
Rotor Volgograd scores more
35%

Arsenal Tula at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Arsenal Tula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rotor Volgograd win just 24% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Arsenal Tula sit 5, Rotor Volgograd 15 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Tula
WDDD
Volgograd
LLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arsenal Tula face Rotor Volgograd (First League)

First League returns with Arsenal Tula hosting Rotor Volgograd. Match starts August 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arsenal Tula host Rotor Volgograd at Stadion Arsenal.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.