Arsenal Tula vs Nizhny Novgorod — First League 2024
Both teams score in 90% of Arsenal Tula’s matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Arsenal Tula32%Nizhny Novgorod39%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Nizhny Novgorod creates 14% more chances
Season form · 42 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Arsenal Tula ↓
Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Arsenal Tula at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches
Nizhny Novgorod away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Arsenal Tula attack 1.07 + Nizhny Novgorod defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99
Nizhny Novgorod attack 1.40 + Arsenal Tula defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Nizhny Novgorod at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Nizhny Novgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Arsenal Tula and Nizhny Novgorod have never met before
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Baltika
Torpedo Moskva
Chernomorets
Ural
FC Sochi
Ska-khabarovsk
Rodina Moskva
Enisey
Rotor VolgogradArsenal Tula
KAMAZ
FK Neftekhimik
Chayka
Shinnik Yaroslavl
FC UFA
FK Sokol Saratov
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
TyumenIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Arsenal Tula host Nizhny Novgorod on Saturday, 29 May 2027 at 15:00. The match is part of the First League 2024/2025 season.
Arsenal Tula face Nizhny Novgorod (First League)
First League returns with Arsenal Tula hosting Nizhny Novgorod. Match starts May 29, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Arsenal Tula host Nizhny Novgorod at Stadion Arsenal.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.